Chapter 3 - Effort sharing emissions

The Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) covers greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport, buildings, agriculture, small industry, and waste. Together, these emissions account for 66% of the EU’s domestic emissions.

In 2024, based on approximated data, emissions from these sectors remain at a similar level compared to 2023, which is 20% lower than in 2005 [34]. 2024 is the first year where EU level emissions are above the aggregated EU emissions limit, exceeding it by 1.6%.

While EU level effort sharing emissions were broadly unchanged between 2023 and 2024, at sectoral level transport emissions increased by 1% and emissions from agriculture and small industry fell by 1%. Emissions from buildings and waste were relatively stable. In 2024, transport was the largest effort sharing sector, accounting for 39% of the EU’s ESR emissions, followed by buildings (22%), agriculture (18%), small industry (16%), and waste (5%).
 

Effort sharing targets

The ESR sets the EU target to reduce emissions in the effort sharing sectors by 40% by 2030 compared with 2005 levels. This overall target translates into national targets for 2030 ranging from 10% to 50% reductions and GHG emissions limits from 2021 to 2030 expressed in annual emission allocations. The Commission will check whether Member States met their emission limits in two rounds – first in 2027 (for the years 2021-2025) and then in 2032 (for the years 2026-2030).

Member States can use, to a limited extent, flexibilities to stay within their annual emission limits and meet their 2030 targets. These flexibilities entail banking, borrowing, buying and selling emission allocations, using surplus (credits) from the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector and for some Member States the option to cancel allowances from the EU ETS for ESR emission allocations (for more details see Chapter 9 of the accompanying staff working document).

Iceland and Norway have agreed to apply, with a few adaptations, the ESR, as adopted in 2018 [35].

Progress towards effort sharing targets

Emission reduction targets for 2030

The ESR sets an emission reduction target for 2030 for the EU and each Member State (compared to 2005 levels). The Commission’s assessment of the final updated national energy and climate plans (NECPs) published in May 2025 shows that effort sharing emissions are expected to decrease by around 38% in 2030 compared to 2005, about 2 percentage points short of the EU target. This marks a substantial improvement compared to the EU wide gap of more than 6 percentage points shown in Commission’s assessment of the draft updated NECPs. It is crucial that the ambitious policies laid out in the NECPs are implemented in full and that Member States maintain their momentum and action to reach the ESR targets. In its assessment, the Commission provided targeted guidance to Member States to facilitate the swift implementation of the plans.

The above findings are confirmed by Member States’ latest projections of March 2025 (see Figure 13). Prior to any use of ESR flexibilities by Member States to meet their targets, Germany, Ireland and Malta show the largest projected gaps in 2030 whereas Bulgaria, Greece and Portugal show the largest overachievement of their 2030 targets.

To close those gaps, Member States have to step up action in addition to fully implementing all current and planned climate policies or use the scope for flexibilities available.

Emission reductions in 2021-2030

The ESR also sets for Member States emission limits for each year in the period 2021 to 2030, with flexibilities to meet these emission limits. The Commission has assessed Member States’ progress towards their ESR obligations by comparing emissions and allocations for each year in the period 2021-2030 based on the latest information and the potential use of some of the flexibilities available under the ESR.

The Commission assumes that Member States will implement their additional measures as included in their projections ‘with additional measures’ (WAM). Regarding the use of flexibilities, the Commission assumes that Member States will use emission allocations saved in one year for compliance in future years (banking) and use emission allocations from a future year if needed in the previous year (borrowing). It also assumes that the Member States that notified their intention to use ETS flexibility will do so when needed.

The Commission finds that 10 Member States would still exceed their limits in at least one year over the period 2021-2030. Cyprus, Croatia, Italy and Romania would already have excess emissions in the first compliance period (2021-2025), while Austria, Estonia, Germany, Malta, Ireland and Sweden are projected to have excess emissions in the second compliance period (2026-2030). The 17 Member States with no gap over the total period 2021-2030 generate more surplus than the 10 Member States would need to cover their gaps. Even if all Member States acquire emission allocations from others when needed, at EU level, a surplus of around 125 to 175 MtCO₂-eq allocations is expected over the 2021-2030 period.

The projected surplus of emission allocations in ESR from some Member States is sufficient to close the gaps from other Member States. The transfers of emission allocations between Member States enhances the cost-effective achievement of the EU objective in line with the architecture of the ESR. Given the size of the projected ESR surplus and the possibilities to trade surpluses under both the ESR and LULUCF Regulation, the Commission cannot, at this stage, conclude that Member States are not making sufficient progress to meet their ESR obligations.

In addition, another flexible arrangement to help Member States comply with the ESR involves transferring an overachievement in the LULUCF sector to cover a limited number of emissions in the effort sharing sectors [36] . Some Member States have already reported their intention to use these flexibilities [37]. However, the limited and preliminary data available on land use sector trends so far suggest that some Member States will have difficulties in reaching their LULUCF targets (see Chapter 4). These Member States could compensate the gap in LULUCF by using ESR emission allocations (Article 12 LULUCF Regulation), which will be automatic for the period 2021-2025 (Article 9 ESR).

Emission trends by type of gas

Two thirds of all emissions from the effort sharing sectors are CO₂ emissions, the remaining third are non-CO₂ emissions (Figure 14). Between 2005 and 2023, non-CO₂ emissions from the effort sharing sectors have reduced by 23%. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases include methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), and fluorinated gases (NF₃, HFCs, PFCs, SF₆). While most of the emissions in the energy sector are covered by the EU ETS, methane emissions in this sector fall under the ESR.

These non-CO₂ gases are emitted from a range of sectors and processes, and they all have much higher global warming potentials than CO₂ by degrees of tens to tens of thousands depending on the gas. As a result, non-CO₂ emissions have an important impact on climate change and are key sources of potential emission reductions in several sectors. Reducing non-CO₂ emissions is also crucial to achieve our targets under the ESR.

Over half of the non-CO₂ emissions come from the agriculture sector. All sectors have reduced non-CO₂ emissions from 2005 to 2023 but the most significant reductions were made in the non-ETS energy (‘other energy’), small industry and the waste sector. Over the same period, non-CO₂ emissions from agriculture, transport and buildings decreased only slightly. Most reductions were nitrous oxide emissions from non-ETS industry, and reductions in methane in the waste sector and non-ETS energy. The level of F-gas emissions has fallen but to a lesser extent (Figure 15).

The EU methane strategy aims to reduce methane emissions in the energy sector, agriculture and waste sectors, and thereby to support the achievement of the ESR targets.

Fluorinated gases

Fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases) have the highest global warming potential of all greenhouse gases, meaning they cause the most harm to the climate. Among them, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) play a key role. HFCs are used in everyday products, equipment and processes, such as refrigeration, air conditioning, heat pumps, insulation, fire protection, power lines or industrial processes and they account for around 90% of all F-gas emissions.

Since 2015, total EU emissions from F-gases have been falling, mainly because new rules to phase down HFCs came into effect that year. By 2030, the amount of HFCs must be cut by about 95% compared to 2015, with a phase-out planned by 2050.

Between 2015 and 2023, in the EU total F-gas emissions fell by 32.8%, and HFCs emissions by 31.4%. From 2022 to 2023 alone, emissions fell by 7.4% for all F-gases and by 5.5% for HFCs. These reductions help Member States to meet their targets under the Effort Sharing Regulation.

Road transport

Transport emissions account for a quarter of all EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 39% of ESR emissions. Transport is the only major sector in the EU economy where emissions are still higher than they were in 1990 (+18%) and have only fallen marginally since 2005 (see Chapter 4 of the staff working document for more details). The decarbonisation of the transport sector must accelerate to achieve the EU’s climate goals for 2030 and 2050.

Road transport is the primary contributor to GHG emissions in this sector, generating about 95% of emissions, or 73% when including international aviation and maritime emissions. Over 70% of road transport emissions come from passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (vans). From 2005 to 2023, road transport emissions fell by less than 5%. This indicates that the gains in vehicle efficiency and the increase in zero-emission vehicles registered have been almost entirely offset by the ongoing increase in road transport activity.

The EU’s CO₂ emission standards for new cars, vans, and heavy-duty vehicles (i.e. lorries, buses, coaches and trailers) are key policies for gradually reducing road transport CO₂ emissions. They set EU fleet-wide emission reduction targets, from which annual specific emission targets are calculated for each individual manufacturer or pool. Compliance with the specific targets is assessed at the level of the fleet of vehicles registered in a given calendar year by a manufacturer or pool (not at individual vehicle level).

According to provisional monitoring data, the average CO₂ emissions from new cars and new vans registered in the EU, Iceland, and Norway slightly increased in 2024, for cars to 106.8 gCO₂/km, up from 106.4 gCO₂/km in 2023, and for vans to 185.4 gCO₂/km, up from 180.8 gCO₂/km in 2023.

The slight year-on-year increase in emissions is a small setback to the steep downward trend in CO₂ emissions of new cars and vans observed since 2020, when stricter CO₂ emission reduction targets came in. This increase occurred in the final calendar year before the stricter 2025 targets start applying. A similar increase in emissions was also recorded in the years before the stricter 2020 targets came into effect.

In 2024, average CO₂ emissions were below the EU targets (see Figure 16), marking a drop of 28% for cars and 8% for vans compared to 2019. This progress is mainly due to the rising number of zero-emission vehicles. In 2024, 14.5% of new cars and 7.2% of new vans had no tailpipe emissions – a sharp increase from just 2.2% and 1.4% in 2019. However, the rate of uptake of zero-emission vehicles varies widely across Member States (see Figure 17). In Denmark, nearly 52% of new passenger cars were zero-emission in 2024. By contrast, the share remained very low in several countries, for example only 2.3% in Slovakia, 2.8% in Croatia, and 3% in Poland.

Despite the considerable progress made in recent years, further emission reductions are necessary for the EU to meet future targets. By 2030, average emissions must fall by 55% compared to the 2021 baseline for new cars (to 49.5 gCO₂/km) and by 50% for new vans (to 90.6 gCO₂/km). 

Heavy-duty vehicles, such as lorries, buses, coaches and trailers, generate almost 30% of all CO₂ emissions from road transport. In 2024, the EU adopted revised CO₂ standards for new heavy-duty vehicles to further tighten existing standards and extend the scope to medium lorries, city buses, coaches, and trailers. The revised Regulation requires CO₂ emissions reductions of 15% by 2025 (unchanged by the revision), 45% from 2030, 65% from 2035, and 90% from 2040 onwards compared to the 2019 baseline. It also sets a 100% zero-emission target for new city buses from 2035.

In reporting period 2023, covering the period from June 2023 to July 2024, average specific CO₂ emissions of new heavy-duty vehicles [38] registered in the EU fell by 4.3%. This suggests that the trend of a more pronounced decline, which began in reporting period 2022 (-6.6%) after the only marginal reductions of the previous two reporting periods, is continuing (Figure 18)  [39].

Overall, in reporting period 2023, emissions were 11.4% below 2019 levels. While this means that the fleet-wide 15% reduction target for 2025 is already within reach, further emissions reductions will be needed in the coming reporting periods, in particular in view of the more ambitious targets from 2030 onwards.

The number of new zero-emission lorries registered in reporting period 2023 has almost doubled with respect to the previous reporting period, however their share in the initially regulated vehicle groups remains still low, at 1.1%.

The Fuel Quality Directive contributes to reducing transport emissions by setting quality requirements for road transport fuels. Compliance with fuel quality limits is high in the EU. Almost all key fuel parameters in the samples taken in 2023 were reported to be within the tolerance limits (including the maximum sulphur content), and Member States reported the actions taken when non-compliant samples were identified. This confirms that the fuel quality monitoring system currently in place ensures that high-quality fuels are sold in the EU and that they meet the requirements of the Fuel Quality Directive.

Until 2023, Member States were also required to report on the 6% life cycle GHG emission intensity target for road transport fuels (measured against 2010 levels). Since 2023, the decarbonisation targets have been incorporated in the revised Renewable Energy Directive. The average GHG intensity of fuels supplied in 2023 was 6.3% lower than in 2010.

For more information on fuel quality, see Chapter 6 of the accompanying staff working document.

As from 2027, fuel combustion in road transport will also be subject to a new emissions trading system (ETS2). The aim of this change is to bring emissions down by 42% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels (see Chapter 2 for more details).