Chapter 1 - Climate action: advances and challenges

Climate change impacts and greenhouse gas emissions: recent trends

2024 was globally the warmest year on record and the first in which the average temperature exceeded 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level  [1]. Europe continues to be the fastest-warming continent and 2024 was marked by a clear east-west contrast in weather patterns. Eastern Europe was mostly warm, with many record-breaking temperatures, while the temperatures in western Europe were more variable, with some months cooler or close to average.

As climate change intensified, 2024 saw a surge in extreme weather events with severe and widespread impacts [2]. South-eastern Europe faced its longest heatwave ever recorded. Wildfires affected over 40 000 people. In July, a large fire in eastern Attica, Greece, burned around 110 km² and in September, several large wildfires broke out in Portugal within a short period. Bulgaria and Romania experienced an above-average number of fires during the summer. It was also one of the ten wettest years in western Europe since 1950. Storms and flooding affected over 400 000 people, resulting in at least 335 deaths. A series of storms in May caused widespread flooding across eastern France, western Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands. In September, Storm Boris swept through central and eastern Europe, and record-breaking rainfall in south-eastern Spain triggered catastrophic flooding in October, causing numerous fatalities and severe economic losses. Glaciers across Europe continue to melt, with those in the Alps among the fastest shrinking in the world.

Unless strong mitigation and adaptation measures are taken, climate change is projected to result in more temperature-related deaths in Europe, especially in the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe [3]. Rising global temperatures are also projected to expose growing fractions of the population to unprecedented climate extremes in their lifetimes [4].

These events and projections highlight the urgent need for continued, ambitious and coordinated climate action to reduce risks, protect people and the economy, strengthen Europe’s strategic independence and competitiveness, and build resilience against the growing impacts of climate change.

Trends in the EU

Provisional data for 2024 show that, in the EU, total net greenhouse gas emissions, including international maritime and aviation emissions under the EU target scope, decreased by 2.5% compared to 2023. Emissions continue on the downward path observed following the exceptional drop achieved in 2023. Emissions were 37.2% lower than in 1990, while GDP was 71% higher, meaning that economic growth continues to decouple from emissions [5].

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The most significant decrease in emissions was achieved in the energy sector, with emissions falling by 8.6% (equivalent to 66 MtCO₂-eq) compared with 2023 (Figure 2). A key factor in this decline was the power sector, where emissions from electricity production dropped by 10.7% compared with 2023 levels [6]. This is largely due to an 8% increase in electricity generated from renewables and a 5% rise in nuclear power, coupled with a decrease in gas by 8% and coal by 12%. Within renewables solar power saw a remarkable growth of 19%, while hydropower increased by 12%  [7]. Wind-generated power increased more moderately by around 2%. Overall, electricity production increased by 2% in 2024.

Overall, total industrial emissions in 2024 remained broadly stable compared with 2023. The industrial sector has two main sources of emissions: fuel-combustion emissions for on-site heat, steam, and power; and non-energy related industrial-process emissions (e.g., cement clinker calcination, lime production, and metal or chemical manufacturing). While fuel-combustion emissions increased slightly by 0.4%, non-energy related process emissions decreased by 0.5%. This reflects the interplay between annual sectoral trends, industrial output trends (a 2.6% decline compared to 2023 [8]) and energy efficiency gains. The emissions from energy-intensive industries generally held steady, though with variations between sectors. For instance, emissions from industrial process in the chemical sector rose by 8.2% whereas those in the mineral sector, including cement, decreased by 2.5%, largely reflecting changes in production volumes.

The agriculture sector also contributed to the overall decline in emissions in 2024, showing a reduction of 1.2% (around 4 MtCO₂-eq) compared to the previous year, while emissions from building and waste stayed broadly unchanged. In contrast, emissions from the transport sector continued to rise, with domestic transport increasing by 0.7% and international maritime and aviation by 3%. As a result, transport is now Europe’s largest sectoral source of emissions.

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In 2024, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) achieved a further reduction in emissions from power and industry installations, with a 5.8% decrease compared to 2023 levels. This brings these emissions to around 50% below 2005 levels. Aviation emissions covered by the EU ETS rose compared to 2023 by around 15%, although around half of this increase was due to an enlarged geographical scope [9].

In the Effort Sharing sectors, emissions remained at a similar level compared with 2023. Provisional 2024 data for GHG emissions and removals from the land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector show an increase in net carbon sinks of around 7% (or 15 MtCO₂-eq) compared to 2023, although approximated data remain subject to revisions.

Global trends

According to the Commission’s 2025 EDGAR report, global greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise in 2024, reaching 53.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent  (Figure 3). This is 1.3% higher than in 2023 and 4.7% higher than in 2019, before the pandemic.

In 2024, the power sector was the main driver of global emissions (+1.5%, or 235 MtCO₂-eq), due to higher demand for cooling, rising energy consumption in industry, the shift to electric transport and the growth of data centres  [10]. The second biggest source of higher emissions was for fuel combustion in industry (+2.1%, or 131 MtCO₂-eq) and then for transport (+1.2%, or 99 MtCO₂-eq).

The largest emitters are China, with 29% of global emissions, the United States (11%), India (8%), the EU (6%), Russia (5%) and Indonesia, Brazil and Japan (all with 2%). Together, they produced 66% of global emissions in 2024.

These emitters, only the EU and Japan reduced their GHG emissions while Indonesia and India saw the fastest growth of emissions. The emissions produced in China and in the United States also increased but at a slower pace than in recent years (Table 1).

Towards the climate objectives

As set out in the European Climate Law, the EU aims to become climate neutral by 2050. This means that by then, the EU will not add any extra greenhouse gases into the atmosphere because emissions will either be reduced to zero or balanced out by removals.

To achieve this, the EU has set an intermediate target to reduce its emissions by 2030 and the Commission has proposed another target for 2040 to be enshrined in the Climate Law. The target for 2030 requires cutting total net greenhouse gas emissions in the EU by at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. The European Commission has proposed a target for 2040 that aims to at cutting net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 (see Figure 4). The European Parliament and the Council are currently considering this proposal.

Three main policies ensure the EU meets its target of reducing emissions by 55% by 2030:

• The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) aims to cut emissions by 62% compared to 2005 levels (see Chapter 2).
• The Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) sets a target of 40% reduction compared to 2005 levels (see Chapter 3).
• The Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation provides for an additional 42 MtCO₂-eq land-based net removal compared to the 2016-2018 average. However, the European Climate Law sets a maximum contribution to the EU economy-wide 2030 target of 225 MtCO₂-eq for land-based removals (see Chapter 4).

Other policies also support climate neutrality and intermediate targets: 

• The emissions trading system for buildings and transport (ETS2), aims to cut emissions by 42% compared to 2005 levels (see Chapter 2), alongside other policies.
• Policies to cut emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) by about 95% compared to 2015 levels (see Chapter 3).
• The CO₂ geological injection and storage capacity target of at least 50 million tonnes per year by 2030 (see Chapter 5).

Figure 4: Main EU climate targets

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Figure 5: EU 2030 targets

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Towards the EU 2030 target

Overall, the EU is on track to achieve the 2030 target. The latest Member State’s projections from March 2025 show a gap close to 1 percentage point to the EU target, in line with the recent assessment of national climate and energy plans.

Achieving the EU target requires the EU and Member States to implement both current and additional policies and measures in full.

Projections based only on existing policies and measures continue to fall short by around 8 percentage points. Extrapolating the trend over the past five years to 2030 points to a 6 percentage-points gap. With only five years left until the interim target to climate neutrality, these findings highlight the critical importance of close monitoring, sustained action and sufficient investment for the EU to meet the 2030 target (Figure 6).

There are differences across sectors and policies. With the contribution from the LULUCF sink limited to 225 MtCO₂-eq by the European Climate Law [11], the projected gap to the EU 2030 target is mainly explained by the challenges and lack of ambition in reducing emissions in the sectors covered by the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), e.g. domestic transport, buildings, agriculture and waste. The projected gap ranges between 2 and 9 percentage points, considering the impact of existing and additional policies and measures and under current policies, respectively. The implementation of planned measures is crucial as the extrapolation of the past five years observed trend would point to even higher gap for ESR (12 ppt). The international aviation and maritime emissions covered under the EU ETS represent another acute challenge, as emissions from these sectors are rising and are hard to abate (see Chapter 3 of the Staff Working Document for more details).

Towards the EU climate neutrality and resilience

On 15 March 2025, EU Member States reported their progress toward the goals outlined in their national energy and climate plans (NECPR) [12]. An increasing number of EU countries committed to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 or sooner [13]. Member States have also set or updated national targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 [14]. When these national targets are aggregated for the entire EU  [15], they are 6 percentage points short of the net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target set for 2050.

In December 2023, the European Commission recommended that 10 Member States adjust their measures to make them more consistent with the climate-neutrality objective. The Commission issues such recommendations if Member State’s measures are inconsistent with the climate-neutrality objective.

The recommendations primarily urged Member States to step up action on climate mitigation and to align their policies with the climate-neutrality objective. Specific sectors like transport, agriculture, and land use (LULUCF) were highlighted for improvements in certain countries. In their following NECP progress reports, all Member States notified the Commission how they considered these recommendations. Some Member States introduced new measures, particularly focusing on renewable energy; others outlined a range of plans and strategies. Several Member States noted that they are in the process of revising their long-term strategies to align with EU objectives (more details in Chapter 3 of the accompanying staff working document).

In addition to the climate-neutrality related recommendations, the Commission issued recommendations to 26 Member States on climate resilience and adaptation within the same package. These span the full spectrum of adaptation policy aspects, from legislation, risk and vulnerability assessments, and the use of nature-based solutions, to policy coordination, funding and transparency.

Subsequently, most Member States confirmed that they will address these challenges as part of their ongoing efforts to upgrade their resilience and their adaptation policy planning and implementation. Many updated their risk assessments in 2023-2025 and an increasing number have prepared thematic and sectoral assessments. Better monitoring, reporting and evaluation frameworks are nevertheless needed at all levels to be able to more accurately assess the efficiency and effectiveness of resilience and adaptation policies and their implementation at Member State level (see Chapter 11 of the accompanying staff working document).

Progress on climate policies and legislation

With the adoption of the European Climate Law in 2021, the EU objective to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 became legally binding, as did the EU’s 2030 target to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% compared to 1990 levels. The law also requires EU institutions and Member States to make continuous progress in adapting to climate change, strengthening resilience, and reducing vulnerability.

The focus in 2024 and 2025 has been on action to meet the 2030 target at Member State level, on setting an EU-wide target for 2040 as the next step on the path to climate neutrality and on setting an EU-wide target for 2040 as the next step on the path to climate neutrality and on ensuring decarbonisation is a powerful driver for a more competitive and resilient Europe.

In July 2025, the Commission adopted a proposal to amend the European Climate Law Regulation to set a 2040 target to reduce the EU’s net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90% by 2040 from 1990 levels. This target will give people, businesses and investors greater predictability to plan ahead. The proposal is now being discussed by the co-legislators.

Work began on a new integrated framework for climate resilience, with a public call for evidence issued at the end of July 2025. Implementation of the EU Adaptation Strategy progressed, reflecting the findings of the first European Climate Risk Assessment, and 2024 Communication on managing climate risks, supported by data and tools from Climate-ADAPT platform and the European Climate and Health Observatory.

In January 2025, the Commission set out a Competitiveness Compass highlighting how it planned to support the transition towards a decarbonised competitive and resilient economy. Accordingly, in February 2025, the Commission presented the Clean Industrial Deal, a joint roadmap for competitiveness and decarbonisation and transformational business plan to support EU industry. It aims to accelerate the process of decarbonisation, while securing the future of manufacturing in Europe. The Deal focuses mainly on two closely linked sectors: energy-intensive industries and clean tech. One of the already completed action is the Clean Industrial Deal State Aid Framework published in June 2025. An important element of the Clean Industrial Deal is the Action Plan for Affordable Energy, which contains specific measures to reduce energy costs in the EU. This initiative will have a significant impact on both industrial competitiveness and the cost of living. Additionally, the Union of Skills launched in March reinforces the goals of the Clean Industrial Deal by promoting development and investment in skills to address skills shortages and to ensure that no one is left behind in the context of the clean transition. 

The Commission continued to prepare the implementing legislation stemming from the revision of the EU’s climate legislation as part of the ‘Fit for 55’ package.

This includes acts to implement:

• the Effort Sharing Regulation;
• the regulation on land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF);
• the regulation on CO₂ emission standards for cars and vans;
• the EU ETS (including the revised rules for aviation) and to extend the scheme to cover the maritime sector, making the EU the first jurisdiction globally to put an explicit carbon price on emissions from the maritime sector;
• the ETS 2 for buildings and road transport; and
• the Social Climate Fund.

New regulations on fluorinated greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances entered into force in March 2024. They have put in place new measures that will eliminate an additional 500 MtCO₂-eq of emissions by 2050 compared to previously adopted measures on these chemicals. In 2025 the European Commission adopted secondary legislation to implement new rules on these substances, which are even more ambitious than the commitments made under the Montreal Protocol.

As part of its wider simplification agenda, in May 2025 the European Commission tabled a proposal to simplify, among others, the F-gas Regulation. The proposal will reduce the administrative burden on importers and exporters by limiting the registration requirements to importers of products and equipment containing F-gases above certain annual thresholds and to those exporters that export stationary equipment with relatively highly warming F-gases [16].

On 1 April 2025, as part of the Commission’s industrial action plan for the European automotive sector and following the Strategic Dialogue on the Future of the Automotive Industry, the Commission proposed to amend the regulation setting CO₂ emission performance standards for new cars and vans. This amendment brings in one-off additional flexibility in reaching the CO₂ targets in 2025-2027, while maintaining the overall level of ambition of the targets. In June, the amendment was adopted by the Parliament and Council and published.

Progress in the Member States

National energy and climate plans

National energy and climate plans (NECPs) are 10-year strategic documents in which Member States set out national targets, contributions and policies and the measures needed to reach EU climate goals. In May 2025, the Commission published its EU-wide assessment of the NECPs, following their updates to take into account the 2030 targets. The assessment was accompanied by a staff working document providing an individual assessment of the first 23 plans submitted. Subsequently, the Commission published its assessment of the final NECPs from Estonia and Slovakia in October 2025. Belgium submitted its final NECP in October 2025 and Poland is the last Member State that has not yet submitted its plan.

The assessment of the plans shows that their full implementation would bring the EU close to reaching its objectives, demonstrating that the EU is well on track to achieving the 2030 target of reducing net GHG emissions by at least 55% compared to 1990 levels. Overall, Member States are encouraged to implement additional measures in the transport and building sectors to meet their ESR targets, and to continue stepping up action in reducing emissions from aviation, the maritime sector, and to increase removals, or reduce emissions, in the LULUCF sector. Further efforts are needed to ensure a just transition and address the social impacts. The plans often lack comprehensive strategies for mobilising public and private finance for the required investments. On climate adaptation, only some plans sufficiently cover preparedness and resilience to climate impacts. A few plans include measures on water resilience (see Chapter 6).

European Semester

In June 2025, the European Commission published its Spring Package under the European Semester, which includes country reports and recommendations for each Member State. The Commission called on countries to support lead markets for clean decarbonised products and put in place plans for net-zero infrastructure, especially in areas like energy networks, carbon capture and storage, and hydrogen. It also highlights the urgent need to decarbonise industry and transport and to make it cleaner, and to step up actions to phase out fossil fuel subsidies. Water management, as part of climate change adaptation, remains a key priority for many Member States. Table 2 summarises the recommendations for each country. 

Table 2: 2025 European Semester country specific recommendations by Member State

Technical support

In 2024, the Commission supported Member States through the Technical Support Instrument, providing expert help to design and carry out reforms. Projects focused on climate change adaptation and mitigation solutions, faster renewable energy permitting, application of the do-no-significant-harm principle, and renovation of buildings. The Commission also helped Member States implement the revised EU Emissions Trading System and prepare national Social Climate Plans under the Social Climate Fund.

In 2025, the Commission continues to support work on natural resource resilience, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, and modernising energy systems. The Commission is also helping to green and upskill public administrations, improve business sustainability reporting and advance carbon capture, utilisation and storage. The support also covers the implementation of the Net Zero Industry Act and the EU Nature Restoration Law.

Country factsheets provide a summary of completed and ongoing reform projects in each Member State.

Policies and measures

To achieve the climate objectives, a sharper focus is needed, both on EU-wide and in national policies and measures. Understanding how these policies work individually and together is essential. In 2025, as part of the National Energy and Climate Progress Reporting, EU Member States have reported progress on over 3.5 thousand individual policies and measures across the five dimensions of the Energy Union [17]. This is a 16% increase compared to 2023, the last reporting year. The number of reported measures increased in most of the countries. The highest increases were reported by Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary and Lithuania. In some cases, this is due to the adoption of new measures between the two reporting years, but it can also be due to amendments, or design changes, of existing measures (Figure 7). Conversely, Malta, Spain and Denmark reported a significant lower number of measures, compared with 2023. However, the number of single policies and measures is not necessarily a good indicator of the past, current and future ambition of Member States. Belgium is the only country that has not made submission by the time of drafting this report. For this Member State, the report uses gap-filled information from the 2023 reporting year.

Around a third of all reported policies and measures have been newly implemented or planned from 2023 onwards. This high number might reflect the EU’s increased climate ambitions and Member States’s efforts to meet their 2030 climate and energy objectives [18]. Most of the reported policies and measures have a decarbonisation objective, meaning that they aim at reducing GHG emission, enhancing carbon removals, or increase the use of renewable energy sources. 

Of these decarbonisation-related measures, the most are in energy supply (23%), energy consumption (22%) and transport (21%) sectors, reflecting the fact that these sectors are significant challenges and priorities for action (Figure 8). There are also many measures in the agriculture, land and forest sectors (19%). The situation varies across the Member States. Cyprus, Italy, Bulgaria, Portugal and Poland report the highest share of policies and measures affecting the energy supply sector. Energy consumption is specifically targeted in Ireland and Germany, while in Spain and France, the focus is more on the transport sector. Other Member States reported a relatively high numbers of policies and measures for the agriculture and land sector (e.g. Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia).

In terms of policy instruments, over 34% of the policies and measures with a decarbonisation objective are economic (e.g. subsidies, feed-in tariffs, auctions, waste fees, congestion charges, etc), and 27% are regulatory (e.g. efficiency requirements, buildings regulations, eco-design standards, inspection procedures, etc). Relatively less measures are of planning (10%) (e.g. urban planning, etc), informative (9%) (e.g. labelling, awareness rising, etc) or fiscal (7%) type. However, there are notable differences between Member States. The Baltic countries, for example, have adopted a relatively high number of economic measures, while in Romania and Bulgaria, most measures are regulatory (Figure 9).

Overall, the completeness of reported information on national policies and measures has improved compared to previous reporting exercises. This improvement is attributed to increased dialogue with Member States, training for lead reporters, and efforts to enhance the clarity of both the guidelines and reporting tables, including the upgrade of existing warning and error checks into blockers in the reporting tool (automated quality checks in the tool that require the resolution of the issue before the dataflow can be released).

However, there is a clear need for improvement in the quantification of the impact of policies and measures. This includes both the achieved and expected effects on greenhouse gas emissions, as well as their costs and benefits. For example, as in 2023, only a fifth of reported policies and measures specify the expected emission reductions by 2030. Moreover, only in very few instances (Croatia, Ireland, Poland, Latvia) there is a broad consistency between the expected emission reductions from the reported measures and the GHG projections (with additional measure scenario) submitted by Member States. This lack of data makes it challenging to assess the overall impact of the measures implemented, highlighting the need for more systematic evaluation of policy effectiveness both before and after implementation (for more details, see the staff working document on the Assessment of progress towards the objectives of the Energy Union and Climate Action accompanying the State of the Energy Union 2025).

Public opinion on climate change

People across Europe have voiced strong concern about climate change and widespread support for climate action, following to the latest 2025 Eurobarometer survey. A significant majority (85%) of EU citizens believe climate change is a serious problem, indicating high levels of awareness and a clear sense of urgency. The concern is particularly pronounced among women and younger people (aged 15-24).

The survey also revealed that 84% of Europeans attribute climate change primarily to human activities, showing a shared understanding of the root causes of the issue.

Support for decisive climate policies remains strong. Overall, 81% of respondents back the EU’s objective of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. However, the level of support varies across countries, with Estonia standing out as the only Member State with less than half (46%) of citizens supporting this target.

The survey revealed resounding agreement (88%) that the EU should actively promote renewable energy and improve energy efficiency and that better preparation for climate impacts will improve daily life (83%).